This Week in Leather Archive - 1/4/2012



Don Ohsman, Publisher


“the week at a glance”

CLIA reviews 2011

Vietnam/Indonesia forecasts better footwear sales

Indian leather trade report

Chinese economy slows

U.S. holiday sales good

Yue Yuen profits off

Nike/Finish line post better numbers

China’s share of U.S. footwear report

U.S. new construction increasing

Hide prices bottom in U.S.


Details as follows:

GENERAL NEWS

CLIA reviews 2011

The Chinese Leather Association recently published a review of The National Development and Reform Commission updated "the Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidelines" to encourage leather industry sustainable to growth in 2011

The 10 points were:

1. To accelerate the change of economy growth mode and industrial adjustment and optimization and upgrading industry, and to establish a modern industrial system the National Development and Reform Commission revised "Industrial Structure Adjustment Guidelines" (version 2011) on March 27, 2011, taking effect on July 1.

2. Compared with previous version, in the new guidelines the items for leather sector to be encouraged to develop are the cleaner production of leather and fur, technologies and equipment in finishing processing, exhausted chrome recycling, utilization of sludge content trivalent chromium, new chemical agents employing in leather making, in the limited items the guidelines raise threshold to 200,000 pieces of leather in annual production capacity from 100,000 pieces of leather per year, in the newly adding item the production below 100,000 wet blue leather is limited, in the eliminated items the threshold raises to 50,000 pieces of cow leather in annual production capacity from 30,000 pieces of leather in previous version, the production of wet blue leather with less 30,000 pieces are listed in the eliminated items.

3. The Ministry of Environmental Protection firstly revealed the qualified list of tanneries

To strengthen the environmental awareness and update the technologies in tanning sectors the ministry of environmental protection launched an overall environmental inspection on leather making industry in early 2011, and announced the first list of tanneries in line with environmental regulations in May 19, the second qualified list of tanneries was posted on August 29.

4. The guidelines on leather industry's five-year plan officially published.
 
The industry five-year plan issued by CLIA on the first session of seventh council congress caused huge echoed in the industry. The document is considered to be the crystallization of the industrial wisdom and achievements and a guideline to lead industry to develop for next five years. The guidelines aim at improving quality and efficiency in the industry with changing of growth pattern, laying a solid foundation to turn China into powerful leather country from large one.

5. The EU ended the anti-dumping duty on Chinese leather shoes as WTO final ruling. The EU Committee announced to end the anti-dumping duty imposed on leather shoes that are imported from China and Vietnam and take effect on March 31, 2011, but the supervision system was followed for one year long on above products. According to WTO expert panel report released on October 28 EU anti-dumping duty on Chinese shoes violates the WTO rules during EU anti-dumping investigation and its reviewing investigation.

6. CLIA selected new board members of the seventh council.
 
In accordance with election regulations on the industrial associations setting by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council and rules of China Leather Industry Association, the seventh council members were selected by vote on the annual general meeting that held in Shanghai on September 5, 2011. 64 companies were elected as new council president and vice presidents, 277 companies took the position of standing director unit, 442 held unit of director of association. Mr. Su Chaoying was appointed as new president; the vice president was taken by Mr. Li Yuzhong who also took the position of general secretary. Chinese expert firstly acting as convenor in international organization for standardization of footwear.

7. ISO/TC 216/WG1 called the first working group meeting in Brussels from March 2 to 3, 2011 and announced the establishment of WG1 with composition of 15 industrial experts, Chinese footwear expert Zhang Weijuan in China Leather and Footwear Research Institutes was acting as convenor in the organization. The second meeting focused on topic of footwear and micro-organism, which held on October 25, 2011, with conclusion to support the researches on: ISO/NP 16718 and ISO/NP 16719 that were proposed by China

8. China's first leather chemicals production base built in Deyang city. Leather chemical production Deyang city in Sichan province becomes well known due to the honor of China Leather Chemicals Production Base conferred by China National Council of Light Industry and China Leather Industry Association on September 5, 2011. Sichuan is the province taking an important role on national leather chemicals production, most of these production focuses on Deyang city, which accounting for 60%or70% of the provincial production. The leather chemicals sector in the city is stressed on the city's five years plan and to be considered as a key sector to support.

9. The leather research wins second award of national technical invention.The key technology to make environmental friendly chemicals used for tanning and finishing process has won the second award of national technical invention on January 14, 2011, which is achieved by the research group headed by professor Ma Jianzhong, vie president of Shanxi University of Science And Technology. The new method to make the chemicals could effectively reduce pollution from leather processing and enhance the properties of leather. The technology has been employed by many tanneries and achieved a good result on economy and social effects.

10. The CLIA posted foreign dishonest traders with black list within its members. In recent two years the fluctuations of raw hides and skins were seen in international market, some illegal and dishonest foreign traders took the chance to sign the contracts with Chinese buyers with relatively low offering price, and then delivered inferior quality of hides and skins. The buyers’ claim for compensation were always met the delaying or refusing. In order to maintain the fair trade and protect the interests of CLIA members, CLIA put these dishonest traders in black list and circulated in its members, so as to prevent further losses with this warning.

11. Shoes exports sets the lowest level in growth rate. The growth rate in shoes exports dropped to 2.4% from 21.5% previous year during the first 11 months, setting lowest level in recent years. Although it was favorable to Chinese shoes export that EU ended anti-dumping on Chinese leather shoes on March, leather shoes export was dropped by 9% in volume. Impacted by production costs hiking, revaluation of RMB, Europe debt crises and so on Chinese shoes sector saw a weak growth in export, transforming foreign trade growth mode has become most urgent need to boost the export growth.

Vietnamese leather/footwear exports projected for 2012

Exports of leather products and footwear were expected to reach US$8.5 billion next year, up nearly 9 per cent over 2011, according to the Viet Nam Leather and Footwear Association (Lefaso), which predicted that leather handbag exporters in particular would see growth of about 15 per cent.

Lefaso vice chairman Diep Thanh Kiet said that over half of major leather and footwear firms had already landed export contracts for the first quarter and 25 per cent of the firms had contracts for the second quarter.

The US was forecast to be the largest import market for Vietnamese handbags and footwear since the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) takes effect next year. Under the TPP agreement, Vietnamese products will enjoy a tariff reduction to below the level imposed on similar Chinese products.

However, industry insiders were also concerned about a reduction in exports to one of the industry's leading import markets, the EU, due to the bloc's debt crisis. Exporters have already reported a decline of roughly 20-30 per cent in export contracts to that market.

Moreover, the EU continues to supervise Vietnamese footwear products due to anti-dumping litigation, which will cause Vietnamese product to be less competitive than those of Indonesia, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, which will benefits from preferential tariffs.

On the domestic market, Lefaso forecast little significant change next year as local consumer demand would remain at about 75 million pairs of shoes and 25 million handbags.

Brazilian cattle slaughter

Brazil recently product their official cattle slaughter statistics for the third quarter of 2011. During the three-month period, Brazilian abattoirs slaughtered almost 7.3 million head of cattle, which represents an increase of 3.1% compared to the second quarter or 2011. Compared to the first quarter of 2010 this is down by 1.6%

Prime Asia press release announces carbon footprint measurement

PrimeAsia Leather Company is one of the first tanneries worldwide to extensively measure the individual carbon footprint of their leather products against international standards. SGS in collaboration with the Plastics Industry Development Center certified PrimeAsia leather’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) according to ISO 14064-3:2006 as meeting the requirements of PAS 2050: 2008. PrimeAsia’s carbon footprint program aims to provide additional knowledge to drive ahead the use and further development of energy efficiency.

The carbon footprint project involved mapping individual leather product’s lifecycles within the business, analyzing the energy used in each stage of the leather making process, and then equating the GHG from each stage to equivalent carbon dioxide emissions (CO2e).

The CO2e emissions of PrimeAsia’s leather products will be used as a benchmark to analyze the impact of present and future energy reduction programs. The carbon data will be made available to customers to enable them to make informed decisions regarding the environmental impact of different PrimeAsia leather products. In 2012, PrimeAsia’s footprint program will continue by measuring water usage per unit of leather and company human resource environmental impacts.

(Livestock Marketing Association.com) - Brazilian-based JBS, the world’s largest meat packer and producer of animal protein, plans to slash $500 million off the annual cost of its global operations by streamlining operations and logistics, the company said late last month.

JBS announces plans to cut costs

The company aims to cut costs through centralizing its purchases and through efficiency gains in logistics and deeper integration of its operations. Savings in its Brazilian operations are expected to reach $100 million, JBS said.

After a string of acquisitions over the past half-decade that made the company the world's biggest meat producer, JBS will take a breather from more acquisitions for now, Chief Executive Wesley Batista said. In the U.S. market, where most of the company's revenues are generated, Batista said it would be possible to economize $8 a head on the cattle it bought that would yield annual savings of $50 million. He also saw potential savings in its U.S. poultry company, Pilgrim's Pride, its Australian operations and its logistics operations.

Indian Council for Leather Exports shows concern for their markets

Even as the euro zone crisis may result in decline in orders next year, Indian leather exporters are hoping that the likely diversion of some exports from China to India will partly compensate the drop in orders from Europe.

‘The European Union is the traditional and largest market for Indian leather products. About 67% of our leather exports are directed to EU. The present trend in Europe is definitely slow and the economic crisis has affected the demand making importers very cautious and conservative. There is a projected drop of 20-25% predicted by buyers for the year 2012,’ Ali Ahmed Khan, executive director, Council for Leather Exports (CLE) told the Indian Financial Chronicle.

Other potential markets that are being tapped are the USA, Japan, Russia, Canada and Australia, among others. However, we will be able to see the results only from the last quarter of 2012. Again this will really not fully compensate the slowdown of the traditional markets.

‘China is facing higher costs and a shortage in labor. We expect that some of the orders from EU to China get diverted to India and this would partly compensate the order drop estimates,’ he added. The global leather trade is estimated at US$116 billion and India’s share is about $3.5 billion, a share of just 3% despite the availability of huge manpower and the raw material base, the country has. However, China’s share in global leather trade is 22% at $25 billion. Interestingly, 12-15 years ago, both China and India were at the same level, doing about a billion dollars worth of exports.

‘Besides expanding their production capacity in a rapid way, Chinese leather manufacturers went ahead and acquired companies and brands in markets such as US. This had given them easy access to these markets and boost their exports in quick period,’ M Rafeeque Ahmed, chairman, CLE said.

He said Indian companies are now scouting for such opportunities in the US market, which accounts for about 9% of Indian leather exports. Indian leather firms would be looking at footwear brands and distribution companies in the US.

In leather garments India and China are strong competitors and India is the second largest producer of leather garments, next only to China, which makes 70 million pieces of the total global trade volume of about 120 million pieces. India’s annual garments production capacity is about 16 million pieces.

The Leather Working Group announces “gold status” to two tanneries

Solar, wind and reed bed technology at Saigon TanTec

Following recent environment audits, the Leather Working Group have awarded the highest 'gold' status to two leading tanneries. They are Saigon TanTec, Saigon in Vietnam and Tyson Food's wet-blue plant in Amarillo, Texas.

The Saigon TanTec plant in Vietnam features solar panels, a wetland area to process waste and wind power to provide energy for the tannery. The LWG have also recently awarded silver status to Curtiembres Fonesca in Argentina and Tehchang Leather Products in Taiwan.

The objective of The Leather Working Group is to develop and maintain a protocol that assesses the compliance and environmental performance of tanners and promotes sustainable and appropriate environmental business practices within the leather industry.

The group seeks to improve the tanning industry by creating alignment on environmentalpriorities, bringing visibility to best practices and providing suggested guidelines for continual improvement.

It is the group's objective to work transparently, involving brands, suppliers, retailers, leading technical experts within the leather industry, NGOs and other stakeholder organisations.

Pakistani Nov. leather exports

This export-oriented sector accounts for about four percent of total exports not only earning huge amounts of foreign exchange, but also providing employment opportunities to about 0.3 million people.

Going forward, the widening of trade gap by more than $1.7 billion for 5MFY12 vis-à-vis 5MFY11 leaves no room for presumptuous export figures. Eyeing the trend, Chairman Pakistan Tanner Association, S.M. Naseem, makes no mistake when he expects a massive decline in the leather exports.

FY11 saw an increase in total leather and leather goods exports by more than 25 percent, as they were able to fetch better export prices. The largest contributions were by leather gloves and leather garments.

Leather exports for 5MFY12 increased by almost 15 percent versus the same period in FY11; However, a slowdown of 10 percent in leather exports is likely for FY12.The early signs of this slowdown can be seen from the meager month-on-month increase in exports of 0.44 percent in November.

He noted that a bleak outlook for the export market and especially the leather sector would not have emerged if the country were not going through the toughest energy crisis of all times. The severe power shortage and gas crisis have led to the cancellation of massive orders by major leather importers.

He went on to say that a shutdown of factories is next in this chain of events. To add to the upheaval, the Eurozone crisis pumped by the European countries can wreak havoc to the trade balance for FY12.

Spain and Italy, who are amongst the major importers of finished leather, leather garments and shoes, are at the verge of being pushed into sovereign default. Not much can be promised as tumbling commodity prices, rising input costs and softening of demand in China, another prime importer, strengthen the fears. Not to forget the floods of 2011 that led to livestock losses.

TFL creditors shopping for bids

TFL Holding GmbH’s creditors plan to begin seeking bids for the leather-chemicals supplier from early next year, according to the trustee overseeing the sale. Creditors of the company and adviser Leonardo & Co. will begin the auction in January, according to lawyer Andreas Ziegenhagen.

Efforts to consolidate among European suppliers of leather chemicals have been hampered by low valuations. BASF SE (BAS) abandoned the sale of its leather and textile unit in March after offers fell short of the company’s valuation. Competition from low-cost producers in Asia is coinciding with a slowdown in demand in some markets for leather bags and shoes.

TFL has attracted interest from financial sponsors and difficulty in raising debt may lead to bids of less than 200 million euros ($260 million) if markets don’t improve, said a person familiar with the transaction, who declined to be named because the information isn’t public.

Leonardo already sent out a memo detailing the forthcoming auction of TFL, which stands for Together For Leather. The supplier of chemicals for car leather and handbags is being sold on behalf of creditors seeking debt repayments taken on under the ownership of private equity firm Odewald & Cie.

Other leather-chemical makers in Europe include Clariant AG (CLN), Lanxess AG (LXS) and Stahl, owned by French buyout firm Wendel SA. Lanxess, which in July started work on a 30 million-euro leather chemicals plant in Changzhou, China, is an unlikely buyer now as it already has had ample opportunity to target TFL, two people said.

TFL, based in Weil am Rhein, is suffering after Odewald saddled it with 65 million euros in debt, leading the company to break covenants in 2008, two people familiar with the matter said in September. Odewald bought TFL, which has annual sales of about 240 million euros, from Permira Advisers LLP in 2003 for an undisclosed price.

ECONOMIC NEWS

China’s factory activity down lower

China's factory activity shrank again December as demand at home and abroad slackened, a purchasing managers' survey showed on Friday, reinforcing the case for pro-growth policies to underpin the world's second-largest economy.

The People's Bank of China is widely expected to lower its requirement for the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves to let lenders inject more credit into the economy to fight headwinds from Europe's debt crisis and sluggish U.S. demand.

The HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index, designed to preview the state of Chinese industry before official output data are published, inched up to 48.7 in December from a 32-month low of 47.7 in November, but fell short of the flash reading of 49.

The HSBC PMI has been mostly under 50, which demarcates expansion from contraction, since July.

"While the pace of slowdown is stabilizing somewhat, weakening external demand is starting to bite," said Qu Hongbin, China economist at HSBC.

"This, plus ongoing property market corrections, adds to calls for more aggressive action on fiscal and monetary fronts to stabilize growth and jobs, especially with prices easing rapidly."

He said China would avoid a hard economic landing so long as policy easing measures filtered through in coming months.

HSBC believes a PMI reading of as low as 48 in China still points to annual growth of 12-13 percent in industrial output.

China's once turbo-charged economy is on track to slow for a fourth successive quarter, easing further from the first quarter's 9.7 percent annual growth rate with economists expecting the final three months of the year to have slipped below 9 percent.

Persistent capital outflows from China are putting more pressure on the central bank to release cash to keep credit conditions supportive for growth.

Underlying indexes of the HSBC PMI showed softening demand at home and abroad, which helped cool inflation -- a boon for Chinese policymakers, according to the data collated by UK-based information firm, Markit.

The sub-index for overall new orders edged up to 46.9 in December from November's 45, but still signaled falling demand. New export orders shrank in a reflection of listless demand from the United States and Europe -- China's top overseas markets.

Average input costs faced by manufacturers continued to moderate as raw material prices slipped, the HSBC survey showed. Inflation appears to be cooling, having fallen from a three-year high of 6.5 percent in July to 4.2 percent in November, creating additional room for policy easing to support growth.

HSBC's Qu expects the government to move on the fiscal front to boost job creation, cutting taxes for exporters -- a sector employing more than 30 million workers -- while increasing spending on public housing and other projects.

"On top of monetary easing, mainly in the form of further reserve ratio cuts, we have long argued that fiscal policy can and should play a more important role in stabilize growth and jobs," Qu said.

Retailers typically pleased with holiday sales

Retailers got a last minute holiday gift this year. Late holiday shoppers — both in the week leading up to Christmas and on the day after — boosted sales and made clear this year’s holiday season will likely outpace the same period last year.

According to ShopperTrak — the world’s largest provider of retail and mall foot-traffic counting services — consumers spent approximately $44 billion in GAFO retail sales for the week ending Dec. 24, a 37.8 percent increase over the previous week and a 14.8 percent gain over the same week last year. Foot traffic was also high, increasing 32.4 percent from the previous week.

Last week’s sales increase ensured this December will outpace December 2010. Month-to-date figures are up 4.7 percent over December 2010.

“Holiday shopping reached a climax last week,” said ShopperTrak founder Bill Martin. “With good weather in most of the country and the season coming to a close, procrastinators and bargain hunters hit the stores and gave retailers the sales lift they needed to outpace last year.”

According to ShopperTrak, a late holiday shopping surge is not uncommon. Last year, the 10 days before Christmas accounted for 24.4% of total GAFO retail sales in the entire holiday shopping season of November and December.

“Increased foot-traffic does not always translate into sales,” added Martin. “Retailers who monitored their foot-traffic hourly and adjusted inventory and staffing to convert shoppers into buyers were the most successful last week.”

As expected, shoppers came out in full force on the day after Christmas because it fell on a Monday for the first time in six years. The day ranked fourth in foot-traffic and sales for the entire holiday season, behind Black Friday Nov. 26, Friday Dec. 23 and Super Saturday Dec. 17.  Foot traffic increased 25.9% over the same day last year and consumers spent $7.1 billion on Dec. 26 in GAFO retail sales, an increase of 25.5% percent over the same day last year.

“Dec. 26 was likely the last door-buster day of the season as shoppers returned unwanted gift items and shopped for marked-down merchandise,” said Martin. “ShopperTrak expects a drop in sales this week as the season ends. Retailers must continue to monitor same-store traffic to capitalize on the final week of the holiday season.”

ShopperTrak analyzed foot-traffic from more than 25,000 locations in the United States to create this National Retail Sales Estimate™ (NRSE) of general merchandise, apparel and accessories, furniture and other sales. With more than 40,000 units installed in the world's best known retail outlets and malls and more than 15 years of retail expertise, ShopperTrak is the industry's authority for information and analysis of the movement of shoppers in retail environments. Developed by ShopperTrak, the National Retail Sales Estimate (NRSE) provides a nationwide benchmark of GAFO retail sales.

NRSE is derived from the U.S. Commerce Department's GAFO (general merchandise, apparel, furniture, sporting goods, electronics, hobby, books and other related store sales) statistic, as well as ShopperTrak's proprietary industry intelligence on shopper foot traffic and sales. NRSE provides retailers, investors and policy makers the most accurate and timely information on consumer sales trends available today.

Holiday season retail e-commerce spending for Nov. 1 through Dec. 26 reached $35.3 billion, up 15-percent versus the corresponding days last year, according to comScore. The most recent week (ending Dec. 25) witnessed $2.8 billion in spending, an increase of 16 percent versus the corresponding week last year.

Weekly Online Holiday Retail Sales

The Conference Board on Tuesday said its consumer-confidence index jumped to 64.5 in December - the highest level in eight months - from a revised 55.2 in November. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the index to climb to 60.0. Consumer confidence has jumped nearly 25 points in the past three months and now sits at its highest level since April. "Consumers are more optimistic that business conditions, employment prospects and their financial situations will continue to get better," said Lynn Franco, director of the board's consumer-research center. Yet Franco also cautioned against reading too much into the data. "While consumers are ending the year in a somewhat more upbeat mood, it's too soon to tell if this is a rebound from earlier declines or a sustainable shift in attitudes." The present situation index rose to 46.7 from 38.3 and the future expectations index rose to 76.4 from 66.4, the board said. The percentage of people who expect more jobs to be available in coming months moved up to 13.3% from 12.4%.

Consumer sentiment up in December

A gauge of consumer sentiment reached 69.9 in the final reading for December compared with 64.1 in November, according to Thursday reports on the data from the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. This is the fourth consecutive monthly gain in the index. A preliminary reading for December pegged the gauge at 67.7. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a final December result of 68.7, with consumers somewhat cheered by declining retail gasoline prices and the large drop in initial jobless claims. The sentiment gauge, which covers how consumers view their personal finances as well as business and buying conditions, averaged about 87 in the year before the start of the most recent recession. Economists watch sentiment data to get a feel for the direction of consumer spending

FOOTWEAR

Yue Yuen profits off

Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Limited's revenues for the year ended Sept. 30 rose 21.7 percent year $7.04 billion, while net profit decreased by 6.2 percent year to approximately US$449.8 million. Basic earnings per share at 27.28 cents, decreased by 6.2 percent compared to last year's figure.

Sales to the Group's largest geographic market, Asia, grew at moderate pace of 26.2 percent compared to last year. In its second largest market, the U.S.A., sales rose 17.7 percent. The European market managed to grow at 30.6 percent compared to last year. South America had sales growth of 6.2 percent.

Total Turnover by Geographical Market

Sales of athletic shoes, the key product category for the Group, grew by 20.1 percent year on year. The category with the strongest sales momentum, casual outdoor shoes, grew by 31.4 percent year on year. Leading brand name customers in both categories were able to launch a series of new models with innovative designs to capture consumer attention and boost sales. Retail sales were also up year on year as China had solid GDP growth and consumers in China continued their purchases of well known brand name athletic footwear and apparel.

Total Turnover by Product Category

At the end of September 2011, the total number of directly operated counters/stores in China under the Group stood at about 3,055 and there were 3,357 sub-distributors in the Greater China region.

During the year under review, the Group increased the number of production lines by 16.7 percent to 537. Most of these new lines were allocated among its three key production bases: China, Indonesia and Vietnam. The pairs of shoes made by the Group during the year amounted to 326.6 million, an increase of 14.0 percent.

Looking Forward

For the two months ended November 2011, the Group turnover stepped up by around 15 percent year-on-year to approximately $1.2 billion.

Indonesian footwear exports forecast to rise

Footwear exports from Indonesia are likely to surge by 25 percent year-on-year to US$ 3.1 billion in 2011, the Association of Indonesian Footwear Producers (Asprindo) has said.

However, the figure is less than the earlier set target of US$ 3.2 billion.

Asprindo has revised the figure downwards due to the financial crisis in Europe, which has led to a 10-20 percent drop in export orders.

The Association has set the target of US$ 3.4 billion for footwear exports in 2012, a rise of 10 percent over the current year.

During the current year, Indonesia’s domestic footwear sales are expected to grow by ten percent to IDR 24 trillion (US$ 2.64 billion) from IDR 22 trillion in 2010.

Vietnam forecast footwear exports to rise

Vietnam’s footwear exports reached US$ 5.7 billion by November end this year and are likely to reach US$ 6.2 billion by year-end, Vietnam Leather and Footwear Association (Lefaso) has stated.

Vietnam’s US$ 5.11 billion worth of footwear exports till October this year are reflective of a year-on-year rise of 25.8 percent. Also, with such impressive export growth figures, footwear became the country’s third largest export earning industry, next to garment and crude oil.

Such a rise in footwear exports is mainly attributable to abolishment of the anti-dumping duties imposed on the Vietnamese leather shoes by the European Commission.

However, with most EU nations facing financial crisis, a slump of almost 20 to 30 percent has been noted in volume of Vietnamese footwear exports to the EU in November 2011.

Lefaso foresees the country’s footwear sector to grow sluggishly during the next year as compared to the current year, and expects to achieve a growth of only 12 percent during 2012.

The Finish Line posts better sales

The Finish Line, Inc. reported revenues rose 8.1 percent in the quarter ended Nov.26, to $282.0 million from $260.9 million a year ago. Comparable store sales increased 7.7 percent on top of an increase of 10.1 percent for the same period a year ago.

Digital sales, which are included in the comparable store sales results, were up 60.8 percent in the third quarter. Earnings rose 34.1 percent to $5.5 million, from $4.1 million, year ago.

Operating margin increased 20 basis points to 2.7 percent of sales this year from 2.5 percent of sales one year ago.

Consolidated merchandise inventories increased 7.0 percent to $280.4 million at the end of the quarter compared to $262.2 million a year ago. For Finish Line, merchandise inventories increased by 5.5 percent.

For the 39 weeks ended Nov. 26, 2011, consolidated net sales increased 8.1 percent to $913.0 million compared to $844.4 million for the same period a year ago. Finish Line year-to-date comparable store sales increased 8.5 percent on top of a 7.3 percent increase last year. Digital sales, on a year-to-date basis, were up 58.7 percent over the prior year.

The company reported consolidated net income of $42.9 million, which is a 27.0 percent increase in earnings per share over the same period a year ago, when net income was $34.6 million.

Finish Line comparable store sales on a month-to-date basis for the period of November 27 through Dec. 18, 2011 increased 7.0 percent on top of a 4.5 percent increase for the same period a year ago.

"Our nearly 8 percent comp increase and EPS gain of more than 37 percent in the third quarter was another strong performance for our company," said chairman and chief executive officer Glenn Lyon. “It is the interplay of social media and technologies such as mobile along with digital and bricks and mortar channels that is the sweet spot for Finish Line. Our strategic plan has led us to develop a strong presence on all of these fronts while working to keep our brand relevant everywhere. We continue to invest with purpose in technology, marketing and digital to drive the Finish Line brand business while also supporting a multi-divisional growth strategy. We are focused on executing this plan while also moving with speed and innovation to take advantage of the right opportunities to grow our business and drive shareholder value."

Nike posts 18% sales gain

Nike, Inc. reported revenues increased 18 percent in its second quarter ended Nov. 30, and advanced 16 percent on a currency-neutral basis. Earnings rose 2.6 percent due to the impact of a lower gross margin but came out slightly ahead of Wall Street's expectation. Futures orders rose 13 percent year over year.

"Our strong second quarter results demonstrate that the Nike, Inc. portfolio is a powerful engine for growth," said Mark Parker, president and CEO, Nike, Inc. "We’re able to accomplish this by staying focused on what we do best – deliver innovative products and experiences that serve athletes, inspire consumers and reward our shareholders. Going forward we’ll continue to use the unique power of our portfolio to drive growth, manage risk and connect with consumers."

Revenues for Nike, Inc. increased 18 percent to $5.7 billion, up 16 percent on a currency-neutral basis. Excluding the impacts of changes in foreign currency, Nike Brand revenues rose 18 percent with growth in every geography except Japan and in all key categories except Action Sports. Revenues for Other Businesses increased 5 percent with minimal impact from changes in currency exchange rates, as growth at Converse more than offset lower revenues at Nike Golf, Cole Haan, Hurley and Umbro.

Gross margin declined 260 basis points to 42.7 percent due primarily to higher product costs, which more than offset the positive effects of growing sales in our Direct to Consumer operations, price increases and ongoing product cost reduction initiatives.

Selling and administrative expenses grew at a lower rate than revenue, up 13 percent to $1.8 billion. Demand creation expenses increased 12 percent to $644 million driven by marketing support for key product initiatives and investments in consumer events for the Nike Brand. Operating overhead expenses increased 13 percent to $1.2 billion due to additional investments made in our wholesale and Direct to Consumer businesses.

China provides 80% of US footwear imports

An article a recent Wall Street Journal said that China accounts for about 80% of U.S. shoe imports; imported-footwear prices in November were up 6.1% from a year earlier. It accounts for about 60% of furniture imports; imported-furniture prices also were up 6.1%. About 80% of U.S. luggage imports come from China; prices in the category that includes luggage and similar goods rose 8.3% in November.

Those higher costs are one reason that U.S consumer prices have risen this year, despite the weak economy. Economists expect Friday's inflation report from the Labor Department to show that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, November consumer prices were up 2.1% from a year earlier, on par with October's rise.

That's relatively low, historically speaking, and unlikely to give Federal Reserve policy makers pause in their efforts to boost the economy. But it marks the biggest gain since October 2008.

Over the past two years, the cost of furniture that Hooker Furniture Corp. buys from China has risen steadily, says Paul Toms, CEO of the Martinsville, Va., company. In September, Hooker raised prices on two-thirds of its product line–everything it hadn't introduced in the past year–by 5%.

With the companies Chinese suppliers raising wages to retain employees, Mr. Toms suspects there will be more price increases to come. "We're in a labor-intensive industry, and it's probably not one of the more-desirable industries for folks to work in," he says. "We think our suppliers are seeing labor cost increases in the 20% to 30% range."

According to China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, 21 provinces and municipalities had, on average, instituted annual minimum wage increases of 22% by October. Officials in Shenzhen, in China's southern manufacturing heartland, said last month that they will raise the city's minimum wage by 15% in January, hoping to attract more workers.

The months ahead may bring U.S. companies some import-price relief. Commodity prices have fallen sharply from their spring highs. A slowing economy, the product of earlier efforts to cool growth, as well as faltering demand from Europe, has checked Chinese authorities' willingness to let the country's currency gain against the dollar.

But rising affluence, growing opportunities in China's interior and a declining youth population are putting upward pressure on Chinese manufacturing wages that will prove difficult to stem.

Until a couple of months ago, most of the largely Chinese-made shoes at Eugene Running Co. cost about $100. But as companies rolled out new models in October and November, they also pushed through higher prices for the first time since 2007.

"Everybody has upped their shoes $5 or $10," says Laura Coll, who co-owns the Eugene, Ore, store with her husband Bob. "Mizuno [Corp.] did a $15 increase on all of their shoes."

Rising wages in China aren't new, says Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris. Pay there has been going up for years. What's different now, he says, is that labor costs have reached a point where Chinese exporters can no longer easily absorb them, and are instead passing them on. That's particularly true for labor-intensive items like shoes.

In a note to clients early this year, Mr. Harris estimated that labor accounts for roughly half the export cost of a Chinese-made sneaker."I think it put them up against their profit wall, and then the pass through started to get quick," he says.

Abicalcados to sing new agreement with APEX

The Brazilian Footwear Association (Abicalçados) will be signing a fresh agreement with the Brazilian Export Promotion Agency (APEX-Brazil) on January 17th during the Couromoda show in Sao Paolo to pinpoint a number of commercial initiatives for overseas markets considered priority for footwear exports. A study was carried out by the organization which is linked to the Federal Government in conjunction with the companies associated with the Brazilian Footwear project – a program whose aim is the promote exports from the sector.

“At the end of the study and with the help of the know-how of the companies we established a ranking of 40 countries with the potential for importing Brazilian footwear”, stated the coordinator of Abicalçados projects, Cristina Körbes. The priority export markets for 2012 are South Africa, Russia, UAE (to be prospected), China (for more prospecting and to open it up), Italy, France, USA and Colombia (for consolidation and positioning Brazil’s image).

According to Körbes, the chosen markets must be studied and action plans set up which will be sent to the companies associated with Brazilian Footwear, which will attend either as commercial missionsorwill participate in local fairs. The schedule of fairs and initiatives will be revealed after the signing of the agreement with APEX-Brasil has taken place since there could be some changes as the plan commits the total investment of the program, which will last one year.

What can be anticipated, according to Körbes, is that Abicalçados will participate in the studies providing infrastructure and human resources as well as offering consultations for the companies associated to the program. In addition, Abicalçados will also check out the investments made in the chosen markets which are the main priority of the export program.

Mexican footwear industry working on Chinese agreement

The Mexican footwear industry has asked for consultations to take place between Mexico and China based on the latter’s Membership Protocol to the WTO so as to request that “Commercial Measures” be taken. The Presidents of the Guanajuato and Jalisco State Footwear Chambers (CICEG and CICEJ respectively) as well as the National Footwear Chamber met in Leon on December 12th with Economic Secretary Bruno Ferari so as to hand in the formal request for bilateral consultations between Mexico and china.

The Mexican industry asked the authorities under the protection of the Membership Protocol of China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) that the “disorganization of markets that is behind the imports of footwear of Chinese origin into Mexico”, be resolved mutually and bilaterally. At the same time the formal request solicits “Commercial Measures” be imposed in the case that the bilateral consultations fail to yield a result.

The industry has enough evidence and sufficient elements to demonstrate the threat of severe damage that the Mexican footwear industry is facing from Chinese imports and the exacerbation of the issue after the elimination of the temporary duties on Chinese products last December 11th.

The President of CICEG, Armando Martín Dueñas, expressed confidence that the economics secretary would accept the request made. He explained that “several months ago the footwear chambers have been presenting to the authorities all the necessary elements so that the secretary can take the appropriate measures. He confirmed that “they are certain that the Guanajuato footwear industry will soon recuperate its pace of growth if the threat caused by the abolition of the temporary import duties is removed”.

At the same time the President of CICEJ, Juan Alonso Niño, added, “The Mexican government is aware that the footwear industry is one of the most representative sectors in the country, both due to the number of jobs it generates and the economy that it sustains. He also said that the manufacturers “can be certain that everything possible will be done to avoid the serious crisis which is about to come upon us”.

Both Presidents were confident that if the requested Commercail measures were introduced then both large and small factories would resume their growth as they are in the two principal states in Mexico where footwear is produced. They also stated that “sufficient legal mechanisms exist” to impose Commercial Measures” as they has insisted to the Economics Secretary responsible for dealing with this matter.

Both Presidents made it quite clear that if bilateral consultations with China failed and the disorganization in the footwear market were to continue as a consequence, than the economics secretary could impose a “Commercial Solution” once the legal formalities had been adhered to.

Key Data:

1. From 2000 to 2010 imports of Chinese footwear into Mexico increased by 475%. From January to September 2011 such imports grew by 32%

2. If this trend were to continue, between 2011 – 2015 local production would fall by 51% with the loss of 35,000 jobs in 2012 and in this five year period the closure of 700 factories and the loss of 55,000 jobs.

3. With the end of compensatory quotas 62,000 companies are endangered in all sectors, which generate 570,000 jobs and which, in the case of the footwear industry, produce 244 million pairs of shoes each year.

Based on the case outlined above it would appear that the Economics Secretary has some hard decisions to take. The freeing up of footwear imports from China will most definitely prejudice Mexico’s traditional footwear industry as well as cause substantial job losses.

UPHOLSTERY

Pending home sales advance in Nov.

MarktWatch said last week that  pending home sales rose 7.3% in November to the highest level in 19 months, according to an industry trade group. The National Association of Realtors said its pending sales index rose to 100.1 in November from a revised 93.3 in October, and it's now 5.9% above its year-ago level.

"Housing affordability conditions are at a record high and there is a pent-up demand from buyers who've been on the sidelines, but contract failures have been running unusually high," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "Some of the increase in pending home sales appears to be from buyers recommitting after an initial contract ran into problems, often with the mortgage." By region, pending home sales rose 14.9% in the West, 8.1% in the Northeast, 4.3% in the South and 3.3% in the Midwest. An index reading of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. Not all contracts lead to closings.

GST finances

Online news service Debtwire published a report earlier this month on automotive upholstery leather makers, GST Autoleather highlighting concerns over the company’s finances. Particularly since the Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan earlier this year.

Debtwire say that the US$135 million refinancing led by ING Bank for GST Autoleather has ‘skidded to a halt’, with a volatile market and the company’s delicate finances causing interested banks to step back.

Debtwire say that the European sovereign debt crisis is just the latest setback for the Michigan based company.

Efforts to refinance the loans backing private equity firm Advantage Partners’ US$300 million purchase of GST in April 2008 stalled following the Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in March. The disaster caused GST’s main Japanese clients – Toyota and Honda – to drastically scale back production and cut orders according to Debtwire sources.

ING, which co-arranged with GE Capital a US$172 million debt package to back Tokyo-based Advantage Partners’ buyout, resumed its pitches to potential investors in Hong Kong and Tokyo over the summer, the sources said.

Dennis Hiller, President and CEO, GST Autoleather told Leather International, ‘Even though we make it a practice not to comment on unauthorized press releases, I can state this one contains many factual deficiencies and attempts to draw the wrong conclusions.’ GST would make no further comment on the Debtwire report.

Debtwire claim that this is not the first time that the company has required financial help since the acquisition. A slide in Toyota’s sales impacted GST severely in 2008, causing it to breach financial covenants at the end of that year.

The business has stabilized since then, although their costs have been higher than expected, according to a Debtwire source. The final acquisition of Seton in early January has helped group income, and given GST additional business with premium carmakers in Germany, the source said.

New single family housing up

New construction of U.S. houses rose 9.3% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000 - the highest annual rate since April 2010 -- with multi-family activity leading growth, according to Commerce Department data released Tuesday. Starts for multi-family residences rose 32.2% in November to a rate of 230,000, the highest level since September 2008. Meanwhile, starts of new single-family homes rose 2.3% to an annual rate of 447,000. Starts in October were revised down to 627,000 from a prior estimate of 628,000. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected an annual rate of 635,000 for starts in November. Building permits, a leading indicator of housing construction, rose 5.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 681,000, the highest annual rate since March 2010.

Homebuilder confidence up

Homebuilder confidence rose to a 19-month high in December, though the gauge still remains in weak territory, according to an index released Monday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 21 in December from 19 in November, marking the third monthly rise in a row. Economists polled by MarketWatch had anticipated a 20 reading. The index for November was downwardly revised from 20. The seasonally adjusted index, which correlates closely with single-family housing starts, is designed so that readings over 50 are considered "good," which hasn't been the case since April 2006.

RoomStore reorganization

Top 100 retailer The RoomStore hopes that bankruptcy reorganization will help it build better economies in distribution and marketing and make it become a leaner and more competitive operation.

This week the company announced plans to close 24 stores and a distribution center, leaving it with about 37 stores. The company is seeking U.S. Bankruptcy Court approval to sell their inventory and other assets at an auction next month.

Additionally, the retailer is seeking authority to designate up to 15 additional stores for closure by Jan. 31, 2012.

The RoomStore, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Dec. 12, filed documents seeking to close the stores last week and asked to have bids submitted at auction on Jan. 4.

No stalking horse bidder was named, but the company said it reserved the right to name one before the auction date.

About 300 employees will be affected by the closings, some of whom may move to other locations, said RoomStore CEO Steve Giordano, who rejoined the company in November.

The RoomStore said the underperforming locations were chosen prior to its bankruptcy filing during a review of operations.

The majority of the closings affect stores in Texas, with 15 occurring in the state, including five locations in San Antonio. The El Paso distribution center is attached to the Gateway Boulevard store, which also is targeted for closing, Giordano said.

The closings will leave it with 10 stores in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Waco markets, but that number is not necessarily final, Giordano said.

It will close three locations in both Virginia and Maryland and leaving it with ten stores in each state. It also plans to close one store each in Pennsylvania and Florida.

Earlier this year, the company began closing full-line stores in Houston and Baltimore and clearance centers in Norfolk, Va., and Fayetteville, N.C.

The retailer also recently left the Birmingham, Ala., market, where it operated a store and warehouse. The moves will leave the retailer with no locations in Alabama, having closed one earlier this year and the Dalton location through bankruptcy.

The company closed a distribution center in Houston earlier this year, and Giordano said the Dallas distribution center will be a different size.

He said the company will have one main distribution center in Rocky Mount, N.C., and a cross-docking facility in Jessup, Md. The Dallas distribution center will manage inventory coming from Rocky Mount.

Prior to the filing the company had 64 stores and five warehouses in eight states, bankruptcy court documents said.

When the company filed for bankruptcy, it listed assets of $56 million and debts of about $52.5 million, including 13 unsecured furniture industry creditors owed $3.8 million.

The retailer said declining sales and depleted cash due to repaying much of a revolving loan this summer, led to the filing.

"When you are out visiting the stores like I am and you see the desire on these people to make the company stronger it does give you strength even though it's a tough job. It gives you a lot of faith in the future," Giordano said.

RAW MATERIALS

U.S.

Due in large part due a surge in raw hide and wet blue exports reported during the Holiday’s coupled with some new leather orders placed in Asia, tanners were active. This created a bottoming of prices with producers asking on average $2.00/pc higher this week than before Christmas

Latin America/Europe

These markets were closed since our pre holiday report and we will have updated information in our next issue.

LOOKING AHEAD

It might be too early, but there are signs that things are looking up for American business, as per a number of stories above.

Good retail sale that include leather products may have bolstered increased quantities in previously placed leather orders as well. All this is evidenced by a significant round of hide buying by tanners which created a market bottom. Meanwhile, producer who have sold some good quantities of late, are doing their best to turn the bottoming into a rally. We’ll know more about this in our next issue, but as of this moment, prices have a decent chance to advance somewhat. Further, a stabilization/bounce in the U.S. should also have a positive affect on Latin America and Europe.



Leather Table
Shoe Upper LeatherThis WeekLast Week
Full Grain aniline, cowhide 2.0 mm and down2.70-2.802.70-2.80
Full Grain aniline, cowhide 2.0/2.4 mm2.75-2.852.75-2.85
Full Grain aniline, cowhide 2.4 mm and up2.75-2.852.75-2.85
Corrected leather, cowhide 2.0 mm and down2.15-2.202.15-2.20
Corrected leather, cowhide 2.0/2.4 mm2.15-2.202.15-2.20
Corrected leather, cowhide 2.4 mm and up2.15-2.202.15-2.20
Upholstery LeatherThis WeekLast Week
Full Grain aniline, cowhide 1.0/1.4 mm3.05-3.103.05-3.10
Full Grain aniline, cowhide 1.4 mm and up3.40-3.503.40-3.50
Corrected leather, cowhide 1.0/1.4 mm2.80-2.902.80-2.90
Corrected leather, cowhide 1.4 mm and up3.20-3.303.20-3.30
Split LeatherThis WeekLast Week
Embossed, smooth 1.4/1.6 mm1.20-1.251.20-1.25
Embossed haircell 1.4/1.6 mm1.20-1.251.20-1.25